New Poll in NY-20

Siena has a new poll for the NY special election. Murphy has pulled into the lead, 47-43. Even better news for Murphy is that he leads among Democrats 84-11, while Tedisco leads among Republicans 64-27. In a special election that's all about turnout, it's very important to have an energized base. One bad bit of news for Murphy is that voters think Tedisco will win, 45-35.

The last debate in this race was last night. You can watch it here. My impression is that Tedisco knows he's choking. His brows are raised almost the entire time he talks, and he continually makes nonverbal approval-seeking gestures. Murphy appears relaxed and in control. He also towers over Tedisco.

There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the outcome. I will adjust my handicapping and call Murphy a slight favorite. I bought a bunch of Murphy around 45.