This is a very tough one to call. The district leans heavily Republican. It had been held by the GOP for years until Gillibrand knocked off a vulnerable incumbent in 2006.
Tedisco started with a huge lead, but Murphy has closed the gap. The most recent poll (10 days ago) had Tedisco ahead by only 4, with a 4-point margin of error. There is reference in this Politico story to an internal Democratic poll that had the race within 2 points.
In special elections, polls tend to be very inaccurate. It's difficult to predict which people will actually vote. These things come down to which party is best able to get its supporters to the polls.
Other tea leaves: Obama waited until today to endorse Murphy. Obama didn't get involved in the Georgia Senate run-off, probably because he correctly calculated that the Democrat was going to lose, and Obama didn't want to be associated with a losing cause. Did Obama wait because he wanted to see that Murphy had a fighting chance? Does the endorsement mean that Murphy has done well in internal polls? Or that the Congressional Dems were telling Obama, "Hey, you gotta endorse this guy. It looks terrible for him to be flapping in the breeze like this."
The election might not be held on March 31st as scheduled.
A Department of Justice lawsuit says the state didn't give enough time for military and overseas absentee voters to vote. On March 11, the governor officially set March 31st as election day. The suit says you need a 30- to 45-day window.
I handicap this one at 50/50. I made some wide markets, just to get the markets started.
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