What would an Iranian compromise look like?

Two guys named sp4rrowh4wk and MikVerbrugge have posted a series of tweets, supposedly from a source inside Iran. Several of the items are rehashes or elaborations of previous rumors, such as deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard. Others are outlandish, such as "Special Forces Commanders offer their units to Assembly of Experts, to arrest Officials incl. Khamenei," or "IRG Qods Force Officers form resistance 'execution squad' named #Azarakhash, avenging Iranian people" So there's better than a 90% chance that everything they post is picked out of thin air.

What I found most interesting was a claim that Rafsanjani had proposed to Khamenei a caretaker government led by Nategh-Nouri as interim president. Naming Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri reveals a pretty deep understanding of Iranian politics. Nategh-Nouri was chairman of the Iranian parliament, and ran for president in 1997, losing to the reformer Khatami. In American terms, he's about like Bob Dole -- a powerful insider, but with fairly mainstream ideology and no independent base of support. In other words, a safe choice as a caretaker, as he has connections to everyone, but would not have the ability to stay on after the emergency passes.

At this point, there are not a lot of options for compromise. Karoubi and Mousavi have made it clear that they will not join a government led by Ahmadinejad. Khamenei will not simply name Mousavi the new president. Yet the national mood is far too volatile to hold new elections. The only real compromise choice is to install a caretaker who is acceptable to all parties, and hold new elections in 6 months to a year.

I still think the most likely scenario is that Khamenei/Ahmadinejad steamroll their opponents with the force of the Basij and Revolutionary Guard. But given the hints of cracks in the establishment, and the tenacity of the opposition, I think there's only a 90% chance Ahmadinejad is sworn for a second term.

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