Corzine, Christie, and Daggett

The NJ governor's race is a Citizen Kang election. The incumbent is a former bankster (CEO of Goldman Sachs) who hasn't really accomplished much. The Republican challenger is a corrupt ex-Bush appointee. Meanwhile, the independent candidate has a clean background and very sensible positions, but he's only now starting to get noticed.

The polls have the race roughly tied at 40 Christie, 40 Corzine, 15 Daggett, and 5 undecided. Christie has lost the lead he once had, but this is more because Christie is losing support to Daggett than because Corzine is gaining. Going forward, I expect to see Daggett continue to gain support. Corzine and Christie are focusing a lot of negative ads against each other. Daggett is avoiding a lot of the mud. What Daggett should do, over the next couple weeks, is run as much advertising as he can introducing himself to voters. Corzine and Christie have successfully convinced voters that neither is qualified to run the state. Daggett can pop up as a fresh face who doesn't want to bicker, just wants to solve problems.

The election is only two weeks away, so it's very very unlikely that Daggett can actually pull this out. I do think he'll continue to gain in the polls, but unless he reaches a threshold of 30% support or so where it appears he actually has a chance, a lot of that support will disappear on election day.

Corzine, being the incumbent, will have a turnout advantage against Christie, so if the polls are tied on election day, Corzine will probably win.

I think Corzine is a slight favorite, in the 55-60% range. Since the Intrade odds have him at 65%, I've got a small bet against him.