Global Warming Endgame

Speaking of global warming, this is what I see happening over the next 20-50 years in terms of climate change.

1. There will not be a real, successful global agreement to curb carbon emissions. The world has faced a similar problem once before, with CFCs and the ozone layer. CFCs were successfully eliminated, because there were relatively easy technological fixes. That's not the case for fossil fuels. Energy technology will continue to improve, and the carbon emitted per unit of GDP will drop. But the industrialization of China, India, and the rest of the developing world will so much more energy that total emissions will continue to rise. It's simply not plausible to convince those countries to forgo their own development for the global good.

2. A disaster will happen which is blamed on global warming. It was controversial to link Hurricane Katrina to global warming. After all, the Gulf Coast has gotten hit by hurricanes for thousands of years. At some point, an unprecedented weather event will occur. For example, extreme monsoons might cause severe flooding in Bangladesh, killing hundreds of thousands and displacing millions.

3. The suffering country, fearing a repeat of the same disaster, and seeing that there will be no global agreement on carbon emissions, will take matters into its own hands. It will attempt to reduce global temperatures through geo-engineering -- it will intentionally spray sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to block out the sun's light.