A new poll out today from Suffolk pegs the NJ governor's race at Corzine 42, Christie 33, Daggett 7. This is definitely an outlier. Corzine's 9-point lead in this poll is far bigger than anything else he's seen in the race. And Daggett's 7% is much lower than other polls have given him.
Still, the Corzine camp has to be incredibly happy with this poll. The size of the lead is so big that no matter what polling errors or statistical flaws Suffolk might incorporate, Corzine is almost certainly ahead.
Plus today Christie got hit with another corruption scandal. It seems he circumvented the normal hiring process to get his friend's son appointed as an assistant US attorney. Christie's been running on an anti-corruption platform, which Corzine has been working hard to undermine. This story is another piece of ammunition for the Democrats. Not only that, it'll suck up media oxygen in the last week of the race. It'll be hard for Christie to get another message out before the election.
I reversed my bet on Christie to bet on Corzine, buying around 65-68.
About Me
- Jesse Livermore
- A neuroscientist by day, and a crusher of Intrade by night. Starting in 2008, I've turned a single $50 deposit into more than $50,000. Follow me on Twitter here. Contact me at wiserthanthecrowd@gmail.com
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3 comments:
Couple surprisingly good polls out for Christie today... do you use those to buy more Corzine? I don't know where this one is going to expire - good luck to you.
Yeah, I saw those. I don't know where it'll end up either. I'll be trading on election night, I'm sure.
When Corzine was super low, I almost bought him, just on the thought that the race would at least tighten. I have a theory on New Jersey: It always pretends like its going to vote REP but in the end always votes DEM. The pretending is where we can make money.
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