Fresh Blood

I read a very insightful post on the Intrade forums by JBinMO:

I see an anti-establishment movement towards "fresh" new blood in national politics. Devoted "right" and "left" aside, the people in the middle are completely disgusted with the arrogance, back biting and "questionable" decisions made by incumbants. They want more than negative ads and partisan bickering. The voters are about to flush the toilet that is Washington.

Obama tapped into the early aspect of this movement with his "hope and change" and "transparency" promises. But, his idea of change was NOT what the voters expected and his idea of transparency has not been true transparency.

Palin was a crowd draw and rallied the base because she was a fresh face, plain spoken and could be associated with people known in everyday life that gets things done.

Scott Brown had a message on issues and from what I understand, did very little negative ads. He was a "fresh face" that people could identify with and support..hoping he could make a difference in the barrel of snakes that occupy Washington.

I am taking all my available trading funds and will be investing in long shot "fresh" faces in national politics. Any incumbant will be vulnerable, including Obama in 2012

I think this is right on the money. Voters are not particularly well informed about any policy details. Most couldn't explain cap-and-trade, or tell you what the government spends most of its money on, or tell you much about what's actually included in the health-care reform bill. What they do know is that most politicians are corrupt, ignorant windbags who think of themselves first, their campaign donors second, and the public hardly at all.

And the voters are right. There are exceptions, of course. I think Obama is generally well-intentioned, though he often lacks the courage of his convictions. But as a rule, our national politics are dominated by thoughtless partisans (John Boehner), listless clock-punchers (William Lacy-Clay Jr.), and amoral party-switchers (Arlen Specter).

On a recent plane trip, I sat in front of two Tea Partiers who talked politics through the entire flight. I heard this phrase over and over again: "I don't give a shit which party they're from, I'm voting against the incumbent."

So far conservatives have been far better at harnessing this energy. But they're not guaranteed to carry it into the November elections. Right now they're busy filibustering a jobs bill. Last week they defeated a proposal for a deficit-reduction committee, and some of the votes against it came from Republicans who had co-sponsored the bill last December. That's ridiculous, and if they continue to block legislation in bad faith, the party as a whole will start to look ridiculous.

Party politics aside, fresh faces will have a huge advantage. Anyone who can plausibly claim to bring good faith to governance will have a storm of angry voters supporting them.